The Way This Strange Season Broke the Conventional Coach of the Year Formula.

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

However the latest competition is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still