Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
